Willy Skoor here football (don't you dare say s*cc*r) fanatic and advocate of fair play. I did favour one team when I was younger but now I just like to see good football and fair play. No club is exempt from praise where it is deserved (and noticed) nor criticism when that should apply. The season is just about over but by the start of next season this should be a useful recap. So let's start with what teams are fighting for.Premier League Fixtures:
Sat 20/04/13
Fulham v Arsenal
Norwich City v Reading
Queens Park Rangers v Stoke City
Sunderland v Everton
Swansea City v Southampton
West Bromwich Albion v Newcastle United
West Ham United v Wigan Athletic
Sun 21/04/13
Tottenham Hotspur v Manchester City
Liverpool v Chelsea
Top:
The Premiership title might be settled barring an epic crash like Liverpool in 1996-97. Manchester United's remaining games aren't necessarily cut and dried though. After the Villa game (even with Villa's recent improvement you wouldn't expect them to get anything from Old Trafford) on Monday, they have to play Arsenal away, Chelsea home, Swansea home and West Brom away. A dip in form could see points lost in any of those games and City are certainly capable of winning their remaining games.
Of course it could be all over by Monday if Tottenham turn City over and United get the expected win. Less predictable and ergo more interesting is the fight for Champions League places. City are more or less guaranteed the runners-up spot with their seven point lead over third place Chelsea. Everton have got just too much to do. They might get above one of the London clubs but certainly not two with games at Anfield and Stamford Bridge to come. So that makes it the two Manchester clubs and any two of the London clubs.
It is a difficult choice. Chelsea have the most difficult run-in and are still in the UEFA Cup as an added distraction. They have visits to Anfield and Old Trafford as well as home ties against Tottenham and Everton among their remaining six games. Tottenham also have six games but are three points behind or 3.5 because of a far superior goal difference. Their season revolves around two home games Manchester City (today) and Chelsea. I think they will struggle in both these but even with a good result they have a couple of banana skins; trips to Wigan and Stoke who are fighting for their lives and a home game against a very capable Southampton.
A more likely threat to Chelsea's third position is Arsenal two points ahead of Tottenham. They have played a game more but they too have a much better goal difference so they could be considered level at this stage. Arsenal only have one game that looks likely to cause a few problems and that's the visit of United. The game against Fulham at Craven Cottage will be the next most difficult and Chelsea just hammered them 3-0 so today's result will determine how serious a threat they are.
Bottom:
At the bottom it looks hopeless for QPR and Reading, both 10 points from safety and that's only if one of the teams above lose all five of their remaining games. Today's game against struggling Stoke is a must win but even that is unlikely to save them. Southampton 38pts and West Ham 39pts are safe now. It is mathematically possible but too many teams have to pass them and they won't all win their games.
So that leaves one of the following: Newcastle 36, Norwich 35, Sunderland 34, Stoke 34, Villa 34, and Wigan 31 with a game in hand. It's almost as if Newcastle could be ruled out but getting thumped at home to Sunderland hurt. Worse still their only remaining home games are against Liverpool and Arsenal. Norwich just a point behind have problems of their own. They seem to have forgotten how to win at home and can't get a point away. Today's game against an all but relegated Reading will kill or cure. Sunderland have a much better goal difference than the others and I can see them winning a couple of their remaining games, it will probably be enough.
I think Stoke will survive. They have a run in one of the top teams would savour. It's a bit different down the other end. The four losses and one draw in the last five games were all close and they just need a bit of luck. They have the next best goal difference down the bottom and it could be crucial in the end. The game at QPR today is more a mustn't lose as opposed to a must win - that's the home game to Norwich next week. Aston Villa have shown a tremendous surge in form but I can't see them winning anymore games. There look to be three potential draws but is that enough?
It probably depends on Wigan the perennial escape artists. There have always been teams similar who hover around the trap-door but it gets them eventually. Wigan have a game in hand and a better than some goal difference but it's winning the game in hand. The last couple of seasons they upset some of the big boys in escaping relegation but I think it is catching up with them.
I would guess Wigan will go down with QPR and Reading. Newcastle and Villa may just escape by the skin of their teeth.
Championship Fixtures:
Sat 20/04/13
Huddersfield Town v Millwall
Burnley v Cardiff City
Watford v Blackburn Rovers
Nottingham Forest v Barnsley
Bolton Wanderers v Middlesbrough
Crystal Palace v Leicester City
Birmingham City v Leeds United
Sheffield Wed v Ipswich Town
Derby County v Peterborough
Brighton v Blackpool
Charlton Athletic v Wolverhampton
Top:
The Championship is further along with just three games each left. Cardiff are almost champions and Hull are almost second. Watford could spoil Hull's party but it is unlikely. For the play-off places there are five teams contesting three places if it is assumed Watford will occupy one of those places. Even with their recent loss of form their five point cushion should be enough. Palace are the only team four games left and have 66pts. Their recent form is atrocious and they could lose at home today against Leicester unless they turn it around. The last game at home to Peterborough should be enough to give them a place.
Brighton are on 66pts as well and are ahead of Palace on goal difference. A home win against a nothing to play for Blackpool would help and looks likely. So it's down to who will get the remaining place and like Champions League places there are three choices. Leicester 64pts, Bolton 63pts, Forest 63pts. Leicester have by far the best goal difference and have to be favourites until you look at their fixtures Palace away, Watford home, and Forest away. Three draws might not be enough. Bolton has winnable home games against mid-table Middlesboro and Blackpool. Even the trip to Cardiff inbetween could surprise with the champions elect celebrating. Forest do have games they can win but their recent decline in form suggests they've blown it. I think Bolton could just pip Leicester to the last play-off place.
Bottom:
Bristol City are relegated but it is possible any two of the next 14 teams above could go down with them with seven points separating them and nine available. It is difficult to see a trend as well with every team having won at least once in the last five games. The head-to-heads will ultimately decide things but first it's a case of trying to narrow down the field. I think overhauling more than a four point gap in three games is unlikely both at the top and the bottom. Unlikely but certainly not impossible. The more teams involved the less likely it is. On that basis we can narrow down the relegation candidates to seven. Bottom of the tree and with the poorest recent form is Barnsley. They have 50pts only one behind the next three teams above but they have to overtake two and draws won't be enough. Away to Forest today looks difficult then a home game against Hull follows. Then the last game of the season is at relegation rivals Huddersfield by which time it might be too late.
Having looked at the other fixtures it looks like it will get really tight and I think Huddersfield and Peterboro might just escape at the expense of the once mighty Wolves.
League 1 Fixtures:
Sat 20/04/13
Portsmouth v Sheffield United
Coventry City v Leyton Orient
Milton Keynes Dons vScunthorpe United
Oldham Athletic v Crawley Town
Doncaster Rovers v Notts County
AFC Bournemouth v Carlisle United
Swindon Town v Stevenage
Walsall v Bury
Yeovil Town v Crewe Alexandra
Colchester United v Shrewsbury Town
Preston North End v Tranmere Rovers
Hartlepool United v Brentford
Top:
Most teams have just two games left to play yet things are far from decided. Doncaster 81, Bournemouth 79, Brentford 78, and Sheffield United 74 with a game in hand contest the title and the remaining automatic promotion spot. Bournemouth are on the best run of form winning all their last five whereas Doncaster have lost two of theirs. Both Brentford have lost ground recently. A likely scenario is that all four will win today which will end Sheffield Utd's hope of the title. A midweek visit to out of form Crewe might get them three points though. It would make the last game between Brentford and Doncaster a decider. Just a one goal win would put Brentford ahead on goals scored.
Bournemouth's trip to Tranmere would have looked more difficult earlier in the season but Tranmere have last their last four and a Bournemouth win could see them take the title if Doncaster fail to beat Brentford. Today's game at home to Carlisle shouldn't be taken lightly as the visitors are unbeaten in the last five games. It's too close to call but I would side with Bournemouth and Brentford second. With Sheffield United and Doncaster taking two of the play-off places. Yeovil and Swindon are almost certain to take the other two spots.
Bottom:
Scunthorpe have an outside chance of avoiding relegation but it would be a minor miracle. Portsmouth, Hartlepool and Bury go with them.
League 2 Fixtures:
Sat 20/04/13
Morecambe v Torquay United
York City v Southend United
Plymouth Argyle v Rotherham United
Exeter City v Cheltenham Town
Aldershot Town v Dagenham & Red
Bradford City v Burton Albion
Barnet v Wycombe Wanderers
Port Vale v Northampton Town
Oxford United v Rochdale
Bristol Rovers v Accrington Stanley
Fleetwood Town v Chesterfield
Gillingham v AFC Wimbledon
Top:
As with League 1 there are just two games left in this league. Gillingham need just a point today against relegation threatened Wimbledon to be crowned champions. Port Vale and Rotherham look most likely to occupy the other two automatic promotion places in this league. Burton, Cheltenham and Northampton should take three of the four play-off places. The last place could be tight between Bradford, Exeter, Chesterfield and Southend but Bradford look to have the edge.
Bottom:
This could be trickier. Aldershot losing their last two games looks to have sealed their fate and a trip to Rotherham should confirm it. Any one from seven could join them though Plymouth look safe at four points from the drop. Dagenham and Accrington are only three points above the drop on 51 but fourteams below them would have to win which looks unlikely. That leaves Torquay, Wimbledon and York on 49pts with Barnet one behind on 48. The one point might be just enough to see them down.
Pete's Punts
Okay shove over squirt it's my turn. This is Pete's Punts. On a league program I usually predict more results than I get wrong even on a bad day. I watch the results every week and as many games as I can. To add a bit of spice to watching the results I like to have a little flutter on some of the results. The system I use is picking nine games to predict and divide them into blocks of three and make seven bets. 123 is one bet, 456 another, and 789 a third. The there are 123456 as a bet, 123789 another and 456789 to make six bets. The seventh bet is 123456789.What this means is if one group of three are all correct the return will be a small profit or loss (depending on the odds of each game). In order to get a decent return two blocks have to be correct. Okay this is less likely to happen but how much less. From a mean of 6/1 for one block to be correct the average odds for two blocks being correct are about 60/1. To break even it would mean that every one in ten weeks two blocks have to be right. The odds still aren't exactly tantalising but hey this is a bit of fun not a career move. Something less common does raise the eyebrows a little though.
Should all nine selections be correct the odds can leap to at least 200/1. It would take only one win in a season to show an overall profit. Next season I am going to try an experiment and bet 7 units each weekend, no more no less whatever the sequence of results, and see the results over the course of the season. One thing I learnt was the beginnings and ends of seasons produce some quirky results and can be difficult to predict. Christmas can be tricky too. The best time is after the first month of the season and you can see form and trends developing.
So let's give it a go.
- Gillingham v Wimbledon - There is the danger Gillingham only need a point to be champions and Wimbledon are fighting for their lives one point from the drop, would both settle for a point. I think Gillingham will want to be crowned with a win. HOME WIN
- MK Dons v Scunthorpe - The danger is Scunthorpe having an outside chance of survival by winning both their games. They have lost three of their last four though and MK Dons still have a chance of a play-off spot. HOME WIN
- Walsall v Bury - Similar to the last game it is a play-off hopeful but this time against an already relegated Bury side. The danger here is that Walsall have only won once in the last five with the other four finishing in draws. HOME WIN
- Hartlepool v Brentford - One of three teams fighting for the title Brentford should beat a deflated Hartlepool who were condemned last week in spite of winning. The doubt is the fact Hartlepool have won their last two games but Brentford also have good form and still have something to play for. AWAY WIN
- Doncaster v Notts County - With nothing left to play for and three defeats in their last four games County look there for the taking. The worris that although Doncaster have won threeof their last five they lost at home to Crewe. HOME WIN
- Norwich v Reading - With Reading all but relegated and in atrocious form this should be one for Norwich. The obvious concern is that Norwich's form is little better than Reading;s but home advantage and something to play for should be enough. HOME WIN
- Bournemouth v Carlisle - Having won all their last five Bournemouth the title contenders have to be fancied to continue the run with home advantage over mid-table Carlisle. The worry is Carlisle are having a decent run of form as well. HOME WIN
- Charlton v Wolves - With an outside chance of the play-offs and in good form Charlton should make home advantage count against relegation threatened Wolves. The danger is that Wolves have won three of their last five although they have lost two of the last three. HOME WIN
- Nottingham Forest v Barnsley - Perhaps the riskiest of the lot with Forest in terrible form. However they still have a very good chance of the play-offs while Barnsley are second bottom. Surely it's time Forest won. HOME WIN
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